Race Winner: Denny Hamlin (lead 6.38% of the race; Greg Biffle lad the most laps – 30.58%)

Laps Run: 188

Miles Driven: 500.08

Average Race Speed: 131.211 mph

Margin of Victory: Caution

Lead Changes: 48

Number of Cautions: 8

Caution Laps: 31

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 16.49%

First Caution Lap: 15

Last Caution Lap: 188

Drivers on the Lead Lap: 27

 

Predicted

Actual

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Denny Hamlin

 

Jeff Gordon

Greg Biffle

 

Brad Keselowski

Clint Bowyer

 

Matt Kenseth

Brian Vickers

 

Jimmie Johnson

AJ Allmendinger

 

Carl Edwards

Paul Menard

 

Joey Logano

Kevin Harvick

 

Kyle Busch

Kasey Kahne

 

Jamie McMurray

Kyle Larson

 

Clint Bowyer

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 

Kevin Harvick

Landon Cassill

 

Brian Vickers

Kyle Busch

 

Kyle Larson

Aric Almirola

 

Greg Biffle

Casey Mears

 

David Ragan

Austin Dillon

 

 

Top 5 Precision: 0% correct

Top 5 Accuracy: 0% correct

 

Top 10 Precision: 20% correct (2 drivers: Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick)

Top 10 Accuracy: 0% correct

 

Top 15 Precision: 40% correct (6 drivers: Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Kyle Busch)

Top 15 Accuracy: 0% correct

(Given that this race is always unpredictable; getting even some precision is outstanding here!)

Dark Horses: Sadly, Tony Stewart was the first driver out of the race so he was never a factor; but both Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Austin Dillon came through and had respectable finishes. Ryan Newman and Martin Truex Jr. (drivers I said to avoid) both notched top 20 finishes so not too bad for then. If you went with my top 5, I am very sorry.

 

Here is how the teams shook out after the race:

Team

Average Finish

Average Start

JTG Daugherty Racing

5.00

3.00

Michael Waltrip Racing

10.67

24.33

Hillman Racing

11.00

41.00

Germain Racing

14.00

4.00

Roush Fenway Racing

14.00

23.33

Richard Petty Motorsports

16.00

20.50

Joe Gibbs Racing

16.67

24.67

Furniture Row Racing

17.00

43.00

Chip Ganassi Racing

19.00

30.50

Phil Parsons Racing

20.00

36.00

Richard Childress Racing

20.25

3.50

Go Fas Racing

24.00

37.00

Hendrick Motorsports

24.00

25.75

Tommy Baldwin Racing

25.00

19.50

Stewart-Hass Racing

26.25

9.00

BK Racing

26.67

29.33

Hscott Motorsports

27.00

38.00

Team Penske

35.00

14.50

Leavine Family Racing

36.00

14.00

Front Row Motorsports

37.50

39.50

Wood Brothers

41.00

23.00

 

A.J. Allmendinger and that single car team brought home the best finish but for multi-car teams, Michael Waltrip Racing brought home the best average finish. The Dinger also had the best qualifying effort, but Richard Childress Racing had the best effort for multi-car teams.

 

Here is a list of where the cars were at the end of the race:

 

Team

Status

Status Count

BK Racing

Accident

2

 

Running

1

Chip Ganassi Racing with

Running

2

Front Row Motorsports

Accident

1

 

Engine

1

Furniture Row Racing

Running

1

Germain Racing

Running

1

Go Fas Racing

Running

1

Hendrick Motorsports

Running

4

Hillman Racing

Running

1

Hscott Motorsports

Running

1

JTG Daugherty Racing

Running

1

Joe Gibbs Racing

Running

3

Leavine Family Racing

Accident

1

Michael Waltrip Racing

Running

3

Phil Parsons Racing

Running

1

Richard Childress Racing

Accident

1

 

Running

3

Richard Petty Motorsports

Running

2

Roush Fenway Racing

Accident

1

 

Running

2

Stewart-Hass Racing

Accident

2

 

Running

2

Team Penske

Accident

1

 

Running

1

Tommy Baldwin Racing

Accident

1

 

Running

1

Wood Brothers

Accident

1


11 cars were out of the race due to an accident, 1 car was out of the race due to an engine going south, and 31 cars were still running out on track (with 27 of those on the lead lap).

 

Here is where the teams and manufacturers stand thus far in 2014:

Team Wins Tracks
Stewart-Hass Racing 3 Phoenix, Martinsville, Darlington
Team Penske 3 Last Vegas, Texas, Richmond
Joe Gibbs Racing 2 Fontana, Talladega
Hendrick Motorsports 1 Daytona
Roush Fenway Racing 1 Bristol

 

Manufacturer Wins Tracks
Chevrolet 4 Daytona, Phoenix, Martinsville, Darlington
Ford 4 Last Vegas, Bristol, Texas, Richmond
Toyota 2 Fontana, Talladega

 

   

Now, let's analyze the Aaron’s 499(race) statistics:

 

Race Speed: The average race speed in the Aaron’s 499 was 152.103 mph, which is 1.77% faster than the average of all Talladega races (149.409 mph). The trending of the average race speed held true as the race was slightly faster than the average.

Margin of Victory: The margin of victory in the Aaron’s 499 was a caution, which cannot be measured against the average of all Talladega races (0.145 seconds). With this nature of restrictor plate racing, and 30% of the prior races ending in caution, this was not a strange event.

Lead Changes: The number of lead changes in the Aaron’s 499 was 48, which is 11.25% fewer lead changes that the average of all Talladega races (53.4 lead changes). This follows the trending of a slight decline from the average.

Number of Cautions: The number of caution flags in the Aaron’s 499 was 8 which is basically spot on, but mathematically it was 5% more than the average of all Talladega races (7.6 caution flags). Trending suggested coming in below the average but in this case it came in right at the average.

Caution Laps: The number of caution laps in the Aaron’s 499 was 31, which (again) is basically spot on; mathematically it is 1.29% lower than the average of all Talladega races (31.4 laps). Like the number of cautions, trending suggested below the average but this also held true to the average,

First Caution: The first caution lap in the Aaron’s 499 came out at lap 15, which is 53.33% sooner than the average of all Talladega races (lap 23). Trending suggested the first caution coming out later than the average, but this turned out to be before the average.

Last Caution: The final caution lap in the Aaron’s 499 came out at lap 188, which is 1.65% later than the average of all Talladega races (lap 184.9). Trending had the final caution coming out later than the average and it just so happened it did in this case. You can always count on a shootout at the end for Talladega; or in this case, a caution.

Lead Lap Drivers: The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the Aaron’s 499 was 27, which is 15.93% more than the average of all Talladega races (22.7 drivers on the lead lap). Trending suggested the average was a good place to be, but more drivers were on the lead lap than the average this time around.

 

A Few Fun Stats:

  • Prior to this race, Gordon, Kenseth, and Edwards were the only drivers to compete in every (points) race and finish on the lead lap; after this race, no driver has competed in every race and finished every lap. However, if you talk about drivers who are eligible for the Chase, Denny Hamlin remains the only driver to complete every lap this season.
  • Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth still have the best average finishes (although their averages dropped dramatically with their finishes at Talladega) and still remain the top 2 in the points standing.