Quaker State 400 (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Matt Kenseth (lead 14.23% of the race)

Average Speed: 131.948 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.699 seconds

Lead Changes: 11

Number of Cautions: 10

Caution Laps: 42 (15.73% of the race)

First Caution: 32

Last Caution: 248

Drivers on Lead Lap: 25

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Jeff Gordon maintains the best average finish this year, while Matt Kenseth has faltered some. Gordon’s teammates, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson have been putting together some great finishes and are climbing the board. This weekend, Gordon looks to capture a victory at every course on the NASCAR schedule. Does he have what it takes to win in Kentucky and keep his fantastic 2014 season going?

 

Quaker State 400 Predictions

Kentucky has only been visited 3 times, but some drivers stand out more than others. No matter how you decide to work the numbers, the same 4 drivers keep popping up (in my calculations at least); Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon. Johnson has lead 203 laps and has gotten better each visit. Kyle Busch has lead 243 laps and has a victory. Matt Kenseth has only lead 38 laps but he also has a victory. Jeff Gordon has not led any laps but all three visits are in the top 10, and with the way his year is going, he can easily come out on top.

 

Dark Horses: Martin Truex Jr.

Avoid: Greg Biffle

 

Team Statistics

Joe Gibbs racing is definitely the favorite at Kentucky, but Hendrick Motorsports is quite eager for a victory there as well. Hendrick has been dominating all season long, but will that benefit them coming into this race?


 

 

Manufacturer Statistics

With Gibbs the best at Kentucky, that gives Toyotas a nice look, and if provided the chance at victory, they will be looking for more right after that.


 


 

Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Raceway: Key Statistics

Past Winners:

  • The average race winner has come from starting in the top 10 (8.3 average)
  • 33.33% of the winners have come from starting on the pole (Kyle Busch – 2011)
  • Matt Kenseth won in 2013 from starting P16, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 77 laps (28.84% of the race)
  • Since Kentucky has only been visited 3 times, statistics are taken very lightly since there is very little data to go on. Therefore, trending will not be reported, but some statistics around Intermediate tracks for comparison will be used

 

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 138.29 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 134.838) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 134.635)

Minimum: 131.948 (Kansas 2007: 104.981) (Kansas 2007: 104.981)

Maximum: 145.607 (Kansas 2010: 168.077) (Kansas 2010: 168.077)

95% Confidence Interval: (124.527, 152.053)

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 1.759 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 1.974) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 1.678)

Minimum: 0.179 (Homestead 2005: 0.017) (Las Vegas 2006: 0.045)

Maximum: 4.399 (Kansas 2006: 12.422) (Kansas 2006: 12.422)

95% Confidence Interval: (-2.843, 6.361)

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 16 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 21.254) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 18.714)

Minimum: 11 (Chicagoland 2009/2010: 10) (Chicagoland 2009/2010: 10)

Maximum: 20 (Charlotte 2011: 38) (Las Vegas 2007: 28)

95% Confidence Interval: (6.835, 25.165)

  

Cautions:

Average: 6.67 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 8) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 7)

Minimum: 4 (Texas 2012: 2) (Kansas 2012: 3)

Maximum: 10 (Charlotte 2005: 22) (Las Vegas 2009: 14)

95% Confidence Interval: (0.557, 12.777)

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 32.67 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 38.627) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 34.257)

Minimum: 24 (Texas 2012: 10) (Kansas 2012: 18)

Maximum: 42 (Charlotte 2005: 103) (Las Vegas 2009: 66)

95% Confidence Interval: (14.63, 50.704)

 

First Caution:

Average: 35.67 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 38.299) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 32.143)

Minimum: 32 (Texas 2014: 1) (Kansas 2004: 2)

Maximum: 43 (Charlotte 2004: 161) (Kansas 2008: 76)

95% Confidence Interval: (22.965, 48.368)

 

Last Caution:

Average: 240.33 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 38.299) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 229.6)

Minimum: 210 (Texas 2012: 95) (Kansas 2011: 163)

Maximum: 263 (Charlotte 2004: 400) (Las Vegas 2009: 281)

95% Confidence Interval: (185.695, 294.972)

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 22.333 (Intermediate/1.5 mile tracks: 19.015) (1.5 mile D-Shaped Ovals: 20.543)

Minimum: 19 (Charlotte 2012: 9) (Kansas 2012: 13)

Maximum: 25 (Las Vegas 2006: 30) (Las Vegas 2006: 30)

95% Confidence Interval: (16.223, 28.443)