Coke Zero 400 (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Jimmie Johnson (lead 58.39% of the race)

Average Speed: 154.313 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.107 seconds

Lead Changes: 18

Number of Cautions: 6

Caution Laps: 27 (16.77% of the race)

First Caution: 24

Last Caution: 157

Drivers on Lead Lap: 29

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Hendrick Motorsports is still dominating at the top of the charts, but Team Penske is working hard to close that gap.

 

 

Coke Zero 400 Predictions

With restrictor plate racing comes many unknowns, but one thing we know is that there are a select number of drivers who are really good at Daytona International Speedway, and the numbers prove just that. Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Haas Racing are pretty dominant at Daytona in July and I would expect them to bring the heat once again.

 

Dark Horses: Ryan Newman & Kyle Larson

Avoid: Greg Biffle

 

Team Statistics

Stewart-Haas Racing has the best average finish and the most wins, mostly coming from owner Tony Stewart, and he will be really working for another victory so he can get himself into the Chase.

 

Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet seems to dominate everywhere they go, and Daytona is no exception.


 

Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway: Key Statistics

Past Winners:

  • The average race winner has come from starting in the top 10 (8.5 average)
  • 40% of the winners have come from starting on the pole (Kevin Harvick in 2010 is the most recent)
  • 60% of the winners have come from starting in the top 5
  • Tony Stewart won from P42 in 2012, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 58.1 laps (36.31% of the race)

 

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 145.645

Minimum: 131.016

Maximum: 159.491

95% Confidence Interval: (125.814, 165.476)

Trending for the July race at Daytona has been on the rise, well surpassing the average. I expect this trend to continue.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 0.105

Minimum: 0.005

Maximum: 0.171

95% Confidence Interval: (-0.008, 0.218)

40% of the July races at Daytona have ended under caution, most recently in 2011. Outside of those cautions ending the race, trending has been on a downward slide, slightly below the average.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 26.2

Minimum: 7

Maximum: 57

95% Confidence Interval: (-4.289, 56.689)

Tandem drafting brought us many lead changes, but that was last seen in 2011, where the most lead changes have been seen. The tandem years lead to a much larger increase in the trending, but the past 2 years have been well below the average; even though the trending is up and above the average, I’d except the lead changes to be less than the average.

  

Cautions:

Average: 7.4

Minimum: 5

Maximum: 11

95% Confidence Interval: (3.605, 11.195)

6 – That seems to be the magic number the past 3 years as there have been 6 cautions since 2011. Trending has been on a decline over the past few years but is hovering around the average.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 28.6

Minimum: 19

Maximum: 41

95% Confidence Interval: (14.546, 42.654)

Just as cautions have been on a decline, the caution laps have been doing just the same, just dipping slightly below the average.

 

First Caution:

Average: 18

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 82

95% Confidence Interval: (-29.749, 65.749)

The first caution is trending later in the race, mainly due to 2012 coming at lap 82. Excluding that data point, the trending is still up but not as steep; without that point, the average is slightly less, around lap 11. I do not think trending is a good story as much as the average is in this case.

 

Last Caution:

Average: 150

Minimum: 78

Maximum: 170

95% Confidence Interval: (97.906, 202.094)

40% of the races in July have gone into overtime. Trending has been going up, pointing towards a very late caution, and perhaps setting up a Green-White-Checkered finish.

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 27.1

Minimum: 17

Maximum: 34

95% Confidence Interval: (17.986, 36.214)

The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the race has been on a decline lately, even falling below the average.