Crow Royal presents the Samuel Deeds 400 at the Brickyard (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Ryan Newman (lead 28.125% of the race)

Average Speed: 153.485 mph

Margin of Victory: 2.657 seconds

Lead Changes: 20

Number of Cautions: 3

Caution Laps: 14 (8.75% of the race)

First Caution: 60

Last Caution: 115

Drivers on Lead Lap: 23

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Just past half way into the season and Jeff Gordon is still going strong in all aspects. He is still the only driver with an average finish under 10, and has the most top 15 finishes. The rookies of Kyle Larson and Austin Dillon are also still doing quite well, and this may be a great weekend for Larson, who has been outstanding on Super Speedways this season (average finish of 5). Could this be Larson’s weekend to finally get a victory? Will Jeff Gordon add to his amazing season with another Brickyard trophy? Or will we finally see Kasey Kahne and Tony Stewart make some noise?

 

 

Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400 Predictions

Kyle Larson may not have raced in the Brickyard 400, but his numbers this season on Super Speedway tracks have been phenomenal. Will it be enough for him to steal away victory from a seasoned veteran though? Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart have the best numbers when it comes to Indy. For Stewart, this could be a do-or-die race, as he is far out of reach of making the Chase with points. Gordon on the other hand is comfortably in the Chase already and would like to add another victory to his resume for this season, as well break the tie with teammate Jimmie Johnson for wins at the Brickyard.

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Avoid: Martin Truex Jr.

 

Team Statistics

Team Penske is closing in on Hendrick Motorsports for most victories of the season, but Hendrick drivers still hold the best average finish advantage. Team Penske has never won at the Brickyard before and both drivers are having quite a season; could they turn this great season into a victory?

 

 

Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet and Ford seem to be pretty close in terms of average finish and number of wins this season, with Chevrolet just ahead of Ford. However, when it comes to Indy, it is all about the Chevrolet! The chances of another Chevrolet in victory lane at Indy are pretty high.

 

 

Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400 at Kentucky Raceway: Key Statistics

Past Winners:

  • The average race winner has come from starting in the top 10 (9.5 average)
  • 20% of the winners have come from starting on the pole (Jimmie Johnson – 2008, Ryan Newman - 2013)
  • 40% of the winner have come from starting in the top 5
  • 50% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Tony Stewart won in 2013 from starting P22, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 48.5 laps (30.31% of the race)
  • Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart have won 70% of the races in the Chase era (Johnson leads with 40% of the victories)

 

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 136.244

Minimum: 115.037

Maximum: 182.763

95% Confidence Interval: (93.389, 179.1)

The speeds at the Brickyard have been rising every year, and this year should be no exception. Trending of the average race speed is expected to be higher than the average.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 1.755

Minimum: 0.332

Maximum: 4.758

95% Confidence Interval: (-1.391, 4.9)

20% of the races have ended under caution. Trending for the margin of victory has been climbing recently. 2012 and 2013 showed us the greatest gap between the winner and second place, which is causing the rise to be much higher than normal. That being said, the trending is rising to well beyond the average.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 16.4

Minimum: 9

Maximum: 26

95% Confidence Interval: (5.601, 27.199)

Lead changes have also been on the rise over the years, peaking above the average for this race and in line with 2013. As long as the tires do not fail the drivers, we could see some great passes for the lead during the course of the race.

  

Cautions:

Average: 7.3

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 13

95% Confidence Interval: (0.433, 14.167)

The number of caution flags seen at the Brickyard is the first statistic I am sharing to be on the decline. Since 2009, the number of cautions has been well below the years prior to 2009, and below the average. With that, the trending (being down), is pointing towards a similar number as 2013, which is well below the average.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 30.8

Minimum: 14

Maximum: 52

95% Confidence Interval: (2.645, 58.955)

The caution laps are the same story as the number of cautions. The trending is pointing towards a much lower than average number of caution laps.

 

First Caution:

Average: 19.6

Minimum: 2

Maximum: 60

95% Confidence Interval: (-20.723, 59.923)

Since 2011, we have seen the first caution come much later than the average. If this trend continues, as the trending is suggesting, we can see another race with a long green flag run at the start of the race. The trending is pointing to almost twice the average.

 

Last Caution:

Average: 140.1

Minimum: 115

Maximum: 161

95% Confidence Interval: (108.838, 171.362)

Only 1 race at the Brickyard has gone past the scheduled distance of 160 laps. Trending is telling us this will continue to happen, especially with the trending of so few cautions. The trending is suggesting another ‘early’ final caution, setting up a long green flag run to the end.

 

Drivers on the Lead Lap:

Average: 28.1

Minimum: 21

Maximum: 36

95% Confidence Interval: (17.97, 38.23)

The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the race has been on the decline, dipping below the average. 2013 had the 2nd fewest number of drivers on the lead lap in recent years. While trending is down, it is suggesting slightly above last year while still being below the average.