IRWIN Tools Night Race (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Matt Kenseth (lead 29.8% of the race)

Average Speed: 90.279 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.188 seconds

Lead Changes: 16

Number of Cautions: 11

Caution Laps: 74 (14.8% of the race)

First Caution: 42

Last Caution: 448

Drivers on Lead Lap: 14

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are still laying down fantastic finishes as the season progress. With only 3 races left until the Chase cutoff, these 2 drivers seem to be the best of the field. If they continue their winning and consistent finishing ways, they will be hard to beat when the Chase is here. On the other side of things, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick seem to be going in the wrong direction. Momentum is key, and since these 3 drivers are pretty good at Bristol, they should be looking for a great finish to get their momentum swinging in the right direction.

 

IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol Predictions

Kyle Busch has the best average finish, while Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are close behind with not so bad average finishes themselves. This could also be Kyle Larson’s race to sneak into the Chase since he had a great finish his first visit here.

Power rankings are based off current yearly stats, track seasonal stats, track overall stats, track type stats, team average (year, track seasonal, and track overall), manufacturer rank, and (yearly) race completion percentage. Manufacturer and team power ranking are more used as a tie-breaker rather than actually incorporated into the equation.

Dark Horses: Joey Logano

Avoid: Aric Almirola

 

Team Statistics

When it comes to the high banks of Bristol, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have it down when it comes to getting to victory lane. Hendrick Motorsports is not far behind Gibbs; nor are Roush Fenway Racing or Chip Ganassi Racing.


 

 

Manufacturer Statistics

Bristol is where Toyota and Ford have it slightly better than Chevrolet. Ford has the best average finish, and the same number of wins as Toyota. It is now or never for a manufacturer besides Chevrolet to step up their game and show their muscles.

 

IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol (Bristol): Key Statistics

Past Winners:

  • The average race winner has come from starting in the top 10 (9.7 average)
  • 20% of the winners have come from starting on the pole (Matt Kenseth – 2005, Carl Edwards - 2008)
  • 40% of the winner have come from starting in the top 5
  • 70% of the winners have come from starting in the top 10
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. won in 2004 from starting P30, which is the furthest back a race winner has started
  • Winning drivers have lead an average of 158 laps (31.6% of the race)

 

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 89.915

Minimum: 84.402

Maximum: 99.071

95% Confidence Interval: (80.027, 99.804)

Compared to the average of the first visit to Bristol, the return averages a much faster race. Trending of the race has also been on the rise over the years for this race, even coming in above the average.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 1.188

Minimum: 0.098

Maximum: 4.39

95% Confidence Interval: (-1.327, 3.704)

Compared to the first visit, the average finish is slightly higher, but the overall numbers are very similar. Trending for this race has been on the decline over the years, pointing towards a much closer finish than the average.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 15.6

Minimum: 4

Maximum: 22

95% Confidence Interval: (4.925, 26.275)

There are fewer lead changes the second time we visit Bristol than the first time, but trending is pointing upwards for this race, almost matching the first race at Bristol.

  

Cautions:

Average: 10

Minimum: 6

Maximum: 16

95% Confidence Interval: (4.112, 15.888)

The number of cautions for the first visit to Bristol is very close to that of the second race. Trending is on the decline

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 64.7

Minimum: 39

Maximum: 87

95% Confidence Interval: (6.156, 23.844)

There are drastically fewer caution laps in the second Bristol race than the first race, and the trending is also declining, but is still hovering around the average.

 

First Caution:

Average: 53.3

Minimum: 11

Maximum: 127

95% Confidence Interval: (-22.278, 128.878)

The statistics around the first caution the second time we visit Bristol are much later than the first race, but the trending is coming down and pointing to an earlier first caution than the average.

 

Last Caution:

Average: 436

Minimum: 289

Maximum: 495

95% Confidence Interval: (318.1, 553.9)

The second Bristol race of the season tends to set up for a longer sprint to the finish than the first race of the season. However, trending is pointing upwards and thus suggesting a shorter run to the end.

 

Drivers on the Lead Lap:

Average: 16.8

Minimum: 7

Maximum: 23

95% Confidence Interval: (6.787, 26.813)

The one thing that you can count on when we visit Bristol is the number of cars on the lead lap at the end of the race is relatively the same no matter the time of year we go there. Trending is pointing upwards, but is not going far past the average.