Race Winner: Joey Logano (31.76% of laps lead)

Laps Run: 340

Miles Driven: 210

Average Race Speed: 134.191mph

Margin of Victory: 0.476 seconds

Lead Changes: 18

Number of Cautions: 7

Caution Laps: 49

First Caution: 1 (Green/Yellow start)

Last Caution: 334

Drivers on the Lead Lap: 18

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 14.4118%

 

Actual

Predicted

 

Joey Logano

Jimmie Johnson

 

Jeff Gordon

Matt Kenseth

 

Kyle Busch

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

Brian Vickers

Denny Hamlin

 

Kyle Larson

Carl Edwards

 

Greg Biffle

Jeff Gordon

 

Matt Kenseth

Greg Biffle

 

Clint Bowyer

Kevin Harvick

 

Paul Menard

Kyle Busch

 

Tony Stewart

Kurt Busch

 

Kasey Kahne

Tony Stewart

 

Aric Almirola

Martin Truex Jr.

 

Denny Hamlin

Jamie McMurray

 

Carl Edwards

Kasey Kahne

 

Brad Keselowski

Brad Keselowski

 

 

Top 5 Precision: 0% correct

Top 5 Accuracy: 0% correct

 

Top 10 Precision: 40% correct (4 drivers: Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, and Matt Kenseth)

Top 10 Accuracy: 0% correct

 

Top 15 Precision: 53.33% correct (8 drivers: Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, and Brad Keselowski)

Top 15 Accuracy: 13.33% correct (1 driver; Brad Keselowski)

 

The dark horses I mentioned, Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, and RCR all proved correct on that front, especially with Logano winning the race and Bowyer notching a top 10. RCR only had a dark horse in Paul Menard. A driver to point out that was not a dark horse who finished really well is Kyle Larson; he seems to have these intermediate tracks figured out already. As for the drivers I suggested to avoid, Brian Vickers proved me wrong by getting a solid top 5 finish, leading MWR racing again.

 

Team Wins Tracks
Hendrick Motorsports 1 Daytona
Joe Gibbs Racing 1 Fontana
Roush Fenway Racing 1 Bristol
Stewart-Hass Racing 2 Phoenix, Martinsville
Team Penske 2 Las Vegas, Texas

 

Manufacturer Wins Tracks
Chevrolet 3 Daytona, Phoenix, Martinsville
Ford 2 Las Vegas, Bristol
Toyota 2 Fontana, Texas

 

   

Now, let's analyze the Duck Commander 500 (race) statistics:

 

Race Speed: The average race speed in the Duck Commander 500 was 134.191mph, which is 6.95 % slower than the average of all Texas Spring races (144.218 mph); the race was a slightly slow pace than the average and this could be due to the first 10 laps being run under caution.

Margin of Victory: The margin of victory in the Duck Commander 500 was 0.476 seconds, which is 360.08% below the average of all Texas Spring races (2.19 seconds); the race had a closer finish than the average and we can relate this to a 2 lap sprint to the finish.

Lead Changes: The number of lead changes in the Duck Commander 500 was 18, which is 24.44% fewer lead changes that the average of all Texas Spring races (22.4 lead changes); there was a lot of action on the track but once the leader got out there, he tended to remain out there for a while.

Number of Cautions: The number of cautions in the Duck Commander 500 was 7, which is 4.29% later than the average of all Texas Spring races (6.7 caution flags); the average, more or less, held true if we take rounding into account.

Caution Laps: The number of caution laps in the Duck Commander 500 was 49, which is 31.43% more than the average of all Texas Spring races (33.6 laps); we can attribute this increase to the first 10 laps being run under caution.

First Caution: The first caution lap in the Duck Commander 500 came out at lap 1 (lap 12 if we call the first real caution after the field is up to speed), which is 3540% sooner (lap 12: 203.33% sooner) than the average of all Texas Spring races (lap 36.4); a wet track and a day rain delay can have affect.

Last Caution: The final caution lap in the Duck Commander 500 came out at lap 334, which is 17.37% later than the average of all Texas Spring races (lap 276).

Lead Lap Drivers: The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the Duck Commander 500 was 18, which is 18.89% more than the average of all Texas Spring races (14.6 drivers on the lead lap); green flag runs lead to more lapping, and this was another race where there were no start and park cars