Race Winner: Brad Keselowski

Laps Run: 267

Miles Driven: 400.5

Average Race Speed: 154.633 mph

Margin of Victory: 1.53 seconds

Lead Changes: 21

Number of Cautions: 4

Caution Laps: 18

First Caution: 18

Last Caution: 222

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 6.7416%

 

Actual

Predicted

 

Brad Keselowski

Matt Kenseth

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Jeff Gordon

Paul Menard

Jimmie Johnson

Joey Logano

Carl Edwards

Carl Edwards

Kyle Busch

Jimmie Johnson

Kevin Harvick

Ryan Newman

Tony Stewart

Kasey Kahne

Kasey Kahne

Jeff Gordon

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Matt Kenseth

Greg Biffle

Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray

Denny Hamlin

Ryan Newman

Brian Vickers

Denny Hamlin

Martin Truex Jr.

Clint Bowyer

Jamie McMurray

Casey Mears

 

Top 5 Precision: 20% correct (1 driver; Carl Edwards)

Top 5 Accuracy: 0%

 

Top 10 Precision: 60% correct (6 drivers: Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kasey Kahne, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.)

Top 10 Accuracy: 10% (1 driver; Kasey Kahne)

 

Top 15 Precision: 66.67% correct (10 drivers; Matt Kenseth, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, and Denny Hamlin)

Top 15 Accuracy: 6.67% (1 driver; Kasey Kahne)

 

So far in 2014, Hendrick Motorsports, Stewart-Hass Racing, and Team Penseke have 1 win a piece; that gives Chevrolet 2 wins and Ford 1 win.

 

 

Now, let's analyze the Kobalt 400 (race) statistics:

 

Predicted Race Speed: The average race speed at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is 131.938mph with a confidence interval of 114.848mph to 149.029mph; the average was 14.68% below the actual (average) race speed of 154.633mph.

Predicted Margin of Victory: The average margin of victory at Last Vegas Motor Speedway is 1.302 seconds with a confidence interval of -0.951 seconds to 3.554 seconds; the average was 14.90% below the actual margin of victory of 1.53 seconds.

Predicted Lead Changes: The average number of lead changes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is 20.5 with a confidence interval of 12.711 lead changes to 28.298 lead changes; the average was 2.38% below the actual number of lead changes of 21 (for rounding purposes, I was spot on with this one!).

Predicted Number of Cautions: The average number of cautions at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is 8.4 with a confidence interval of 3.05 cautions to 13.75 cautions; the average was 110.00% above the actual number of caution flags of 4.

Predicted Caution Laps: The average number of caution laps at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is 38.5 with a confidence interval of 15.076 laps to 61.924 laps; the average was 113.89% above the actual number of caution laps of 18.

Predicted First Caution: The average lap in which the first caution flies at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is lap 23.6 with a confidence interval of lap -21.921 to lap 69.121; the average was 31.11% above the actual first caution at lap 18.

Predicted Last Caution: The average lap in which the final caution flies at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is lap 241.3 with a confidence interval of lap 184.873 to lap 297.727; the average was 8.69% above the actual final caution at lap 222.