Pocono 400 (2013) Statistics:
Winner: Jimmie Johnson (lead 80% of the race)
Average Speed: 144.202 mph
Margin of Victory: 1.208 seconds
Lead Changes: 12
Number of Cautions: 6
Caution Laps: 19 (11.875% of the race)
First Caution: 67
Last Caution: 155
Drivers on Lead Lap: 31
2014 Driver Statistics
Jeff Gordon struggled at the end of the Dover race and was surpassed by Matt Kenseth in the points as well as best average finish. Because Kenseth does not have a win (yet), being P1 in the points is a good thing. With his last place finish at Dover, Brian Vickers took the biggest hit while Greg Biffle is still treading water in hopes of getting a win to get into the Chase. Kyle Larson continues to impress and Brad Keselowski is looking so much better than last year. As we head into the summer, it is time for Tony Stewart and Kasey Kahne to pick up their game.
Pocono 400 Predictions
Before the Coca-Cola 600, Fox Sports had a poll on their webpage asking when fans think Jimmie Johnson would win; Charlotte, Dover, Pocono, None. I chose Dover; (I believe the number was) 40% chose none of the above. Oh the irony in those results as I have Johnson to go to 3 in a row. The haters were quiet when he didn’t win, but they are out in full force now that he has 2 wins. Just imagine how crazy they will be if he gets 3 in a row. You will also see a rookie at the top in Kyle Larson. It is not crazy to see him at the top of predictions anymore; he has proven he can compete with the best out there. He has never been to Pocono before, but that hasn’t stopped him from laying down great finishes at tracks he hasn’t been to before either.
Dark Horses: Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, Jamie McMurray
Avoid: Aric Almirola, Casey Mears, Paul Menard
Joe Gibbs Racing holds a slightly better average finish over Hendrick Motorsports while HMS holds the most wins this season. When it comes to Pocono, Stewart-Haas holds the best average over HMS, but again, HMS holds the most wins. With the struggles that Stewart-Haas seems to have this year, that average could be in jeopardy. I would also look for Team Penske to improve on their average finish.
Chevrolet may have been in a tight battle a few weeks ago with Ford, but now they are setting sail on their way to another manufacturer’s championship. With the best average finish and most wins (this year thus far), Ford and Toyota have some work to do. Sadly for you Ford and Toyota fans, the same holds true at Pocono Raceway.
Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway: Key Statistics
Race Speed (mph):
95% Confidence Interval: (113.588, 152.506)
The average race speed has been getting faster each year and this race should be no exception. We should see a faster than average race. Hopefully the rain stays away!
Margin of Victory (seconds):
95% Confidence Interval: (-0.14, 4.208)
40% of the past 10 races have ended up caution; 1 due to rain, and 2 since the inception of the GWC era, so it is a fairly high probability that this race will have a caution at the end, but with 3 GWC attempts, it just may go longer (gas mileage anyone?). Those races that did complete not under caution have produced a decline in the margin of victory which dips slightly below the average.
95% Confidence Interval: (7.699, 30.701)
The number of lead changes has also been on a decline over the years, trending well below the average. Look for this pattern to continue; that means more lovely Pocono Raceway passing!
95% Confidence Interval: (2.238, 11.562)
Cautions have, overall, been on the decline at Pocono, but right around what the average is. It may be a tricky triangle, but things that cause cautions tend to be absent from this non-oval circuit.
95% Confidence Interval: (0.698, 55.102)
Fewer cautions mean fewer caution laps and that is what we have here as well. The only difference between cautions and caution laps is the laps are trending downward well below the average vs. the cautions being around the average.
95% Confidence Interval: (-23.975, 66.575)
Sometimes, we see a caution right away at Pocono; other times, we wait a while – I guess it all depends on the rain, right? Overall, the trending of when the first caution flies is on the upswing and slightly above the average.
95% Confidence Interval: (108.985, 229.815)
The last caution that flies at Pocono is yet another thing on the decline. Granted the past 2 races are the only ones that have been 400 laps, it is harder than other races to say when this one will come out. Percentage wise/laps until the end, you are looking at a handful. The average is not helpful either in this case as it applies to the longer races mainly. If we take a look at the percentage, we see an average of 93% of the way through the race (or 7% remaining) when we see the caution; for 400 miles (160 laps), that puts it around lap 149.
Drivers On The Lead Lap:
95% Confidence Interval: (16.215, 37.585)
The number of drivers on the lead lap is one of the higher ones of tracks visited in a year; Pocono wide racing surface and length help prevent drivers from going down easily. The trending has even been on an upswing over the years, pushing past the average. Could we see a record for Pocono? Probably not but we could get fairly close!