Quicken Loans 400 (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Greg Biffle (lead 24% of the race)

Average Speed: 139.278 mph

Margin of Victory: 2.989 seconds

Lead Changes: 22

Number of Cautions: 8

Caution Laps: 27 (18.5% of the race)

First Caution: 7

Last Caution: 168

Drivers on Lead Lap: 27

 

2014 Driver Statistics

The top of the leader board has swapped once again with Jeff Gordon being back up top. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has leapt over teammate Jimmie Johnson thanks to his victory at Pocono; this still keeps 75% of Hendrick Motorsports in the top 4. Carl Edwards and Joey Logano were hurt the most at Pocono (with no) thanks to an accident and an engine issue. Kurt Busch has been steadily improving his on track performance and should not be in jeopardy of falling below 30th place in points.
 

 

Quicken Loans 400 Predictions

100% of Carl Edwards’ visits to Michigan have resulted in a top 15 finish; 77.78% success at reaching the top 10, and 55.56% success at reaching the top 5 (plus a win to boast). If any weekend is good for rebounding, this would be it for Edwards. This is also a great track for Greg Biffle; then again, Roush Fenway Racing is pretty stellar when it comes to racing in Michigan. You do not see Brad Keselowski on the top 15 (but as a dark horse); with only 2 top 15s (and no top 10s), it is hard to see him in the top 15. Granted he has run very well this season, hence why he is someone to definitely keep an eye on.
 

 

Dark Horses: Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Martin Truex Jr.

 Avoid: A.J. Allmendinger, Casey Mears, Marcos Ambrose

 

Team Statistics

Joe Gibbs Racing holds a slightly better average finish over Hendrick Motorsports but HMS is still holding the most trophies thus far in 2014. For this weekend’s Quicken Loans 400, it is all about the Roush Fenway drivers. Carl Edward and Greg Biffle are just outstanding and the average finish of 9.55 plus 3 victories really make it hard to count against them this weekend.


 

Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet may have the best 2014 going for them right now, but the blue ovals of Ford tend to be the best at Michigan. Both Chevrolet and Ford have 3 wins but Ford has the best average finish. Overall visits to Michigan really put Ford into a league of their own. If you want more details about manufacturers this weekend, refer to this article.

 

Quicken Loans 400 at Michigan Raceway: Key Statistics

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 144.545

Minimum: 118.788

Maximum: 156.386

95% Confidence Interval: (122.139, 166.952)

Michigan is a fast track, one of the fastest of the circuit actually. Of the 4 super speedway, Michigan tends to be the fastest (excluding Daytona and Talladega). The average race speed has been increasing every year, and since most races in 2014 have gotten faster, this trend should stick around and be faster than the average.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 2.606

Minimum: 0.997

Maximum: 3.702

95% Confidence Interval: (-0.791, 6.004)

30% of the races in recent years have finished under caution (last in 2008). If the race is not finishing under caution, the margin of victory is getting further and further away. At a track where fuel mileage comes into play, this is the case more often than not of having a wide margin of victory. This year, we could even see the margin of victory more than the average.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 20.4

Minimum: 11

Maximum: 31

95% Confidence Interval: (10.237, 30.563)

Lead changes are on the up at Michigan! High speeds and more passing make for great racing, right? The average of 20 might be a good assumption, if not slightly more.

  

Cautions:

Average: 6

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 9

95% Confidence Interval: (1.578, 10.422)

Trending of cautions is flat and also at the average. Not much can be said here besides the number of cautions can be quite predictable at Michigan.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 26.5

Minimum: 14

Maximum: 42

95% Confidence Interval: (4.485, 48.515)

Even though cautions are remaining flat, caution laps are on the decline, yet still at the average.

 

First Caution:

Average: 21.9

Minimum: 2

Maximum: 74

95% Confidence Interval: (-29.364, 73.164)

Only 3 times has a caution been “late” in the race. 60% of the time, the first caution has come before lap 10, average around lap 4.8 (lap 5). 3 times, the first caution came out after lap 40. That said, the trending is on the decline and below the average, pointing towards another early caution (maybe not as early as most, but earlier than normal).

 

Last Caution:

Average: 163.5

Minimum: 116

Maximum: 203

95% Confidence Interval: (102.042, 224.958)

The last caution is pretty flat and consistent at Michigan. Only once has there been more than 200 laps run and that was back in 2008. The average is a good lap to look for that final caution.

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 22.3

Minimum: 9

Maximum: 37

95% Confidence Interval: (7.391, 37.209)

The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the race has been on the decline as of late at Michigan, but is hanging around the average.