2013 Race Statistics:
Winner: Kyle Busch (lead 62.5% of the race)
Average Speed: 135.351mph
Margin of Victory: Caution
Lead Changes: 17
Number of Cautions: 9
Caution Laps: 35
First Caution: 30
Last Caution: 200
Drivers on Lead Lap: 24
2014 Driver Statistics
Brad Keselowski sits on top with the best average finish thus far in 2014; Jeff Gordon is the best driver without a win. As many have said, Jeff Gordon is the only driver with all Top 10s this season; will he continue this weekend? Could he get a win? Read on to find out what might be in store for this Sunday in Fontana, California!
Auto Club 400 Predictions
It is not impossible to see a 5th different winner this year in Jimmie Johnson, but also look for those Joe Gibbs drivers to make some noise.
Dark Horses: Ganassi drivers, Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon
Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports seem to be in a league of their own in 2014. Can anyone else flex their muscles on Sunday?
Ford and Chevrolet and going toe-to-toe with each other as of now, but it is still early in the season. Ford leads the way in Fontana when they visit in the Spring (remember, Fontana used to have 2 races a year) with Chevrolet right on their heals!
Race Speed (mph):
95% Confidence Interval: (124.993, 159.024)
The races at Auto Club Speedway have been getting faster over the past few years, so it would not be crazy to see the average race speed slightly above average.
Margin of Victory (seconds):
Average: 2.466 (3 of the last 10 races have ended under caution)
95% Confidence Interval: (-6.781, 11.712)
Excluding the caution finishes, the margin of victory tends to be under 2 seconds, so we can expect to see that occur this Sunday.
95% Confidence Interval: (8.158, 34.842)
Lead changes have been on a downward trend over the past several years; if this pattern holds, we can expect to see the lead changes on the lower side (below the average).
95% Confidence Interval: (0.548, 12.652)
The number of cautions has been on a slight upward trend over the past few years, but we can still expect to see around the average of 6 cautions this Sunday.
95% Confidence Interval: (6.462, 56.138)
The number of caution laps is on a very slight downward trend but we can expect to see around the average number of caution laps, if not slightly less.
95% Confidence Interval: (-33.495, 113.895)
It appears that the drivers have been nicer to each other on the track, and debris has not been around, as the first caution lap has been coming later each year. It would not be crazy to see the first caution come out (well) beyond the average, but not outside of the confidence interval.
95% Confidence Interval: (123.744, 287.856)
Prior to 2011, this race used to be 250 laps; now it is 200 so the statistics will be higher than what we can expect. Since going to 200 laps, the final caution tends to be seen within 15 laps to go (185 and beyond) but it is hard to say if this is a trend or not.
Drivers On The Lead Lap:
95% Confidence Interval: (11.224, 27.576)
The number of drivers on the lead lap has been on a slight increase so it is possible to see slightly more than the average (19) number of drivers on the lead lap.