2013 STP Gas Booster 500 Statistics:

Winner: Jimmie Johnson (lead 69.2% of the race)

Average Speed: 72.066mph

Margin of Victory: 0.627 seconds

Lead Changes: 12

Number of Cautions: 12

Caution Laps: 49

First Caution: 17

Last Caution: 487

Drivers on Lead Lap: 22

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Jeff Gordon is currently best in class thus far this season. While he has no wins (yet), he has the best average finish as well as finishes all in the Top 15 this year. Gordon could very well earn his first victory of the season this year at Martinsville, his best track on the circuit.

*The top 16 you see here is comprised on drivers who are eligible for Cup Series points and are racing for the championship (aka have, per NASCAR’s rules, attempted every race)*

 

STP 500 Predictions

The likelihood that we see our 6th different winner this weekend is pretty good. Look out for a battle between the top drivers at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson.

Dark Horses: A.J. Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose, Danica Patrick

Avoid: Kasey Kahne, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr.

 

Team Statistics

With the exception of Stewart-Hass racing, the teams with victories seem to be running the show so far in 2014. It is no surprise that those same teams have the best average finish at Martinsville; but look out for Ganassi Racing this weekend. With the way Kyle Larson ran this weekend and the way Jamie McMurray has run this year and in the past at Martinsville, they both could shake things up at the front.

 

Manufacturer Statistics

No surprise again; Chevrolet leads the way in 2014 as well as at Martinsville. Look for that trend to continue.

 

 

STP 500: Key Statistics To Look Out For

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 73.063

Minimum: 68.169

Maximum: 78.823

95% Confidence Interval: (67.229, 78.898)

The spring race at Martinsville has been pretty on target to the average, but it is likely to see a slight faster average race speed this weekend.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 0.582

Minimum: 0.065

Maximum: 1.083

95% Confidence Interval: (0.032, 1.131)

The margin of victory has held fairly constant to the average with a very slight decrease over time; I would expect to see the average finish around the average this weekend.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 17.2

Minimum: 10

Maximum: 31

95% Confidence Interval: (4.177, 30.223)

Lead changes have been on an increase at Martinsville as of late so it would not be crazy to see slightly more than the average number of lead changes this weekend.

 

Cautions:

Average: 12.9

Minimum: 7

Maximum: 18

95% Confidence Interval: (6.614, 19.186)

The number of cautions has been on a downward trend over the past several years (leading to slightly faster average race speeds). We could see slightly fewer cautions than the average this weekend; but it is a short track and tempers can flair at any moment.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 78.8

Minimum: 49

Maximum: 105

95% Confidence Interval: (43.2, 114.4)

The number of caution laps has been on a downward trend over time as well; with fewer cautions comes fewer laps.

 

First Caution:

Average: 27.5

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 99

95% Confidence Interval: (-33.062, 88.062)

Drivers seem to playing nicer on track at the start of the race as it has been more laps under the belts before a caution came out. Expect to see the first caution fly beyond the average.

 

Last Caution:

Average: 475.5

Minimum: 404

Maximum: 505

95% Confidence Interval: (416.824, 534.176)

The last caution to come out has been steady; coming out within 25 laps to go to set up for a quick shootout. We can look for the final caution to follow this pattern and appear around 25 to go.

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 17.2

Minimum: 12

Maximum: 22

95% Confidence Interval: (9.97, 24.43)

The number of drivers on the lead lap has held fairly consistent over time, so I believe we can expect to see less than 50% of drivers on the lead lap; even more, I’d expect around the average.