2013 NRA 500 Statistics:

Winner: Kyle Busch (lead 51.2% of the race)

Average Speed: 144.751mph

Margin of Victory: 0.508seconds

Lead Changes: 18

Number of Cautions: 7

Caution Laps: 36

First Caution: 39

Last Caution: 315

Drivers on Lead Lap: 18

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Hendrick Motorsports comprises 60% of the top 5 in average finish for the year thus far with 2 of those driving being the best this season. Joe Gibbs racing has all of their drivers in the top 8 (of average finishes) and Team Penske has both drivers in the top 9. Can Hendrick Motorsports keep the momentum going this weekend and stay on top; or will we see the Penske or Gibbs drivers make some more noise?

*The top 16 you see here is comprised on drivers who are eligible for Cup Series points and are racing for the championship (aka have, per NASCAR’s rules, attempted every race). This is NOT the point’s standings!!!*

 

Duck Commander 500 Predictions

I am pretty confident that we will see a 7th different driver in victory lane this weekend.

Dark Horses: Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Richard Childress Racing

Avoid: Brian Vickers, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Marcos Ambrose

 

Team Statistics

Hendrick Motorsports is still up top with the best team average finish  while Stewart-Hass Racing has the most wins (2), but if it were not for Danica Patrick, the team average would be much better. When it comes to Texas, Hendrick, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Roush Fenway Racing are at the top; throw in Stewart-Hass racing and that is where all the wins have come from.

 

Manufacturer Statistics

Ford has the best run at Texas when they make their first visit, but Chevrolet does better overall.

 

 

Duck Commander 500: Key Statistics To Look Out For

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 144.218

Minimum: 130.055

Maximum: 160.577

95% Confidence Interval: (128.278, 160.157)

A slight increase over time would indicate a slightly faster race is in store this weekend; although that all depends on the number of cautions.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 2.19

Minimum: 0.028

Maximum: 8.315

95% Confidence Interval: (-3.399, 7.778)

2007 to 2010 had a fairly consistent margin of victory; since then, they have been slightly higher, but we can expect a margin of victory within 3 seconds.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 22.4

Minimum: 13

Maximum: 31

95% Confidence Interval: (10.356, 34.444)

Lead changes do not tend to fluctuate very much and over time, are around the average. However, with this new car, we could easily see more than the average number of lead changes.

 

Cautions:

Average: 6.7

Minimum: 2

Maximum: 11

95% Confidence Interval: (1.981, 11.419)

Texas is a pretty fast, incident free track; while the speeds are high, the tempers, compared to other tracks, is relatively calm. We have seen a trend of fewer cautions over the years when Texas appears, but not too far away from the average.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 33.6

Minimum: 10

Maximum: 56

95% Confidence Interval: (8.351, 58.849)

The number of caution laps has been on a downward trend over time as well; with fewer cautions comes fewer laps.

 

First Caution:

Average: 36.4

Minimum: 3

Maximum: 98

95% Confidence Interval: (8.351, 58.849)

Drivers at Texas tend to have a lot of green flag racing, therefore an extremely early caution is not likely (but never impossible). Look for a long green flag run before the first caution comes out.

 

Last Caution:

Average: 276

Minimum: 95

Maximum: 331

95% Confidence Interval: (132.355, 419.645)

Again, with Texas, there is a lot of green flag racing. It would be rare to get the final caution within less than 15 laps to go so look for a long green flag run to the end.

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 14.6

Minimum: 10

Maximum: 21

95% Confidence Interval: (7.285, 21.915)

The trend over time has been pretty constant for the number of drivers on the lead lap; again, due to the fast nature of Texas Motor Speedway and all the green flag runs.