Toyota Owners 400 (2013) Statistics:

Winner: Kevin Harvick (lead 0.74% of the race)

Average Speed: 92.141 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.343 seconds

Lead Changes: 10

Number of Cautions: 11

Caution Laps: 75

First Caution: 42

Last Caution: 396

Drivers on Lead Lap: 26

 

2014 Driver Statistics

Jeff Gordon is still leading the way in average finish for the year but Matt Kenseth is matching him every step of the way. Gordon, Kenseth, along with Carl Edwards are the only drivers to have completed every lap of the season which should come as no shock as to why they have the top 3 average finihes for the year.

*Denny Hamlin missed 1 race due to medical issues but has finished every lap in the 6 races he has been in*

 

This is NOT the point’s standings!!! These statistics are the top 16 best average finishes plus any driver who has wins that is not in that top 16.

 

Toyota Owners 400 Predictions

*Note that the statistics here are for Richmond International Raceway and not for the year; those are above.*

 In 9 visits to Richmond (in the Spring race), Kyle Busch has an average finish of 4.56 (best), 4 wins (also the best), 8 top 5s (again, the best), 8 top 10s (tied for best with Tony Stewart), and 8 top 15s (again, tied for the best with Tony Stewart); that means all but 1 time he has finished in the Top 5 (only time was 2013). He has lead 593 laps and was dominant from 2009 - 2012 winning 4 consecutive Spring races here. Add another factor in (like I need to with stats like these!), his 2014 season is not bad at all. He has an average finish of 11.5 with 1 win, 2 top 5s, 4 top 10,s and 6 top 15s. As long as 2013 was a hiccup at his dominance for Richmond International Raceway, we should see another Kyle Busch Show this Saturday night.

Dark Horses: Brian Vickers, Kasey Kahne, Marcos Ambrose, Kurt Busch

Avoid: Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard, Danica Patrick

 

Team Statistics

In 2014, Joe Gibbs seems to be leading the way with Hendrick Motorsports right on their heels. When it comes to Richmond, the Gibbs stable seems to be pretty unstoppable. 

 

Manufacturer Statistics

Chevrolet seems to have a handle on this early on in the season but Ford is keeping those bowties in their sights. As for Richmond, Toyota has Kyle Busch in their corner as well as Denny Hamlin.

Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway: Key Statistics To Look Out For

 

Race Speed (mph):

Average: 96.55

Minimum: 90.627

Maximum: 105.202

95% Confidence Interval: (87.461, 105.64)

Richmond race speeds can vary a lot from year to year; in 2012, we saw the fastest race at Richmond and that was partly (or mostly) due to such a few number of cautions. Overall, the trending has been on a very slight decline but can be expected to fall around the average.

 

Margin of Victory (seconds):

Average: 1.164

Minimum: 0.343

Maximum: 2.751

95% Confidence Interval: (-0.357, 2.685)

2013 provided us the closest finish in recent years at Richmond while 2009 provided us the opposite. Overall, the trending has been on a decline over the years and we could easily see a finish well under the average.

 

Lead Changes:

Average: 15.1

Minimum: 4

Maximum: 24

95% Confidence Interval: (2.9, 27.3)

Since 2012, lead changes have been pretty consistent (average of 12.5) which is below the Chase era average. With that said, and trending being down, we can expect less than the overall average number of lead changes.

 

Cautions:

Average: 9.9

Minimum: 5

Maximum: 15

95% Confidence Interval: (3.544, 16.256)

2004-2009 saw an increase in cautions but the number of cautions has dropped pretty drastically since then; that leads to an overall decrease in the number of cautions and we can expect to see around the average number of cautions.

 

Cautions Laps:

Average: 60.4

Minimum: 31

Maximum: 80

95% Confidence Interval: (27.439, 93.361)

Caution laps more or less mirrors the number of cautions; slight downward trending over the past few years is present and we can look for slightly below the average number of caution laps (but that all depends on the number of cautions seen).

 

First Caution:

Average: 40.1

Minimum: 1

Maximum: 108

95% Confidence Interval: (-29.645, 109.845)

 The trending of when the first caution comes has been up an upward trend over the years so it would not be a farfetched idea to have a caution come later than the average.

Last Caution:

Average: 373.2

Minimum: 302

Maximum: 399

95% Confidence Interval: (311.825, 434.575)

The consistency in which the last caution comes out is uncanny honestly. While there has been slight movement, the average is true to the overall trend and remains flat. Therefore, we should see that last caution come out within 25 laps to go. The idea of a GWC is there as well.

 

Drivers On The Lead Lap:

Average: 17.7

Minimum: 9

Maximum: 26

95% Confidence Interval: (6.384, 29.016)

More and more drivers are keeping their sights on the leader as the trending of the drivers on the lead lap at the end of the race has been on steady climb upwards. I say it is safe to expect above the average number for Saturday’s race.