Race Winner: Kurt Busch (4.6% of laps lead)

Laps Run: 500

Miles Driven: 263

Average Race Speed: 72.176mph

Margin of Victory: 0.263 seconds

Lead Changes: 33

Number of Cautions: 14

Caution Laps: 92

First Caution: 3

Last Caution: 460

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 18.4%

 

Actual

Predicted

 

Kurt Busch

Jeff Gordon

 

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Denny Hamlin

 

Joey Logano

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

Marcos Ambrose

Brad Keselowski

 

Matt Kenseth

Matt Kenseth

 

Kevin Harvick

Jamie McMurray

 

Aric Almirola

Clint Bowyer

 

Clint Bowyer

Tony Stewart

 

Paul Menard

Kyle Busch

 

A.J. Allmendinger

Ryan Newman

 

Jeff Gordon

Carl Edwards

 

Carl Edwards

Kevin Harvick

 

Kyle Busch

Joey Logano

 

Austin Dillon

Clint Bowyer

 

 

Top 5 Precision: 40% correct (2 drivers; Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr.)

Top 5 Accuracy: 20% correct (1 driver; Jimmie Johnson)

 

Top 10 Precision: 40% correct (4 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, and Clint Bowyer)

Top 10 Accuracy: 20% correct (2 drivers; Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth)

 

Top 15 Precision: 60% correct (9 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, and Kyle Busch))

Top 15 Accuracy: 13.33% correct (2 drivers; Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth)

 2 of the 3 dark horses I mentioned (A.J. Allmendinger and Marcos Ambrose) really came through (P5 and P11 respectively); the other dark horse, Danica Patrick, was a bit of a disappointment compared to how she ran here last year. The drivers I mentioned to avoid (Kasey Kahne, Martin Truex Jr., and Greg Biffle) finished P18 or worse so avoiding them was a good idea it seems. The best finishing rookie was Austin Dillon with a very respectable P15 for his first race at the paper clip track.

 

Team Wins Tracks
Hendrick Motorsports 1 Daytona
Stewart-Hass Racing 2 Phoenix, Martinsville
Team Penske 1 Las Vegas
Roush Fenway Racing 1 Bristol
Joe Gibbs Racing 1 Fontana
     

 

Manufacturer Wins Tracks
Chevrolet 3 Daytona, Phoenix, Martinsville
Ford 2 Las Vegas, Bristol
Toyota 1 Fontana

 

Now, let's analyze the Auto Club 400 (race) statistics:

 

Race Speed: The average race speed in the STP 500 was 72.176 mph, which is 0.48% slower than the average of all STP 500 races (73.063 mph); the race was a slightly slow pace than the average.

Margin of Victory: The margin of victory in the Auto Club 400 was 0.263 seconds, which is 56.66% below the average of all STP 500 races (0.582 seconds); the race had a closer finish than the average.

Lead Changes: The number of lead changes in the STP 500 was 33, which is 47.88% more lead changes that the average of all STP 500 races (17.2 lead changes); a lot of passing for the lead when on with this race.

Number of Cautions: The number of cautions in the STP 500 was 14, which is 7.86% more than the average of all STP 500 races (12.9 caution flags); basically, there was 1 more caution during the race than the average.

Caution Laps: The number of caution laps in the STP 500 was 92, which is 14.35% more than the average of all STP 500 races (78.8 laps).

First Caution: The first caution lap in the STP 500 came out at lap 3, which is 816.67% sooner than the average of all STP 500 races (lap 27.5); looks like the drivers were in more of a hurry to get to the front than usual.

Last Caution: The final caution lap in the STP 500 came out at lap 460, which is 3.37% sooner than the average of all STP 500 races (lap 475.5); while the final caution did not come out with that 25 to go window, I came out with 30 to go and still provided us a great finish.

Lead Lap Drivers: The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the STP 500 was 25, which is 31.2% more than the average of all STP 500 races (17.2 drivers on the lead lap); there were only 2 drivers who were not running at the end of the race (no start and park cars).