Race Winner: Joey Logano (11.5% of laps lead)

Laps Run: 400

Miles Driven: 300

Average Race Speed: 93.369 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.946 seconds

Lead Changes: 20

Number of Cautions: 9

Caution Laps: 66

First Caution Lap: 2

Last Caution Lap: 386

Drivers on the Lead Lap: 24

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 16.5%

 

Actual

Predicted

 

Joey Logano

Kyle Busch

 

Jeff Gordon

Jeff Gordon

 

Kyle Busch

Carl Edwards

 

Brad Keslowski

Tony Stewart

 

Matt Kenseth

Denny Hamlin

 

A.J. Allmendinger

Matt Kenseth

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Clint Bowyer

 

Ryan Newman

Kevin Harvick

 

Carl Edwards

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Ryan Newman

 

Kevin Harvick

Jimmie Johnson

 

Brian Vickers

Kyle Larson

 

Jamie McMurray

Brad Keslowski

 

Kasey Kahne

Joey Logano

 

Greg Biffle

Greg Biffle

 

 

(It must be pointed out; Joey Logano won at Texas Motorspeedway and the 2 drivers that finished behind him were Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch.)

 

Top 5 Precision: 40% correct (2 drivers; Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch)

Top 5 Accuracy: 20% correct (1 driver; Jeff Gordon)

 

Top 10 Precision: 60% correct (6 drivers: Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Newman, and Carl Edwards)

Top 10 Accuracy: 10% correct (1 driver; Jeff Gordon)

 

Top 15 Precision: 66.67% correct (10 drivers: Joey Logano, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Brad Keslowski, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Newman, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, and Greg Biffle)

Top 15 Accuracy: 13.33% correct (2 drivers; Jeff Gordon and Greg Biffle)

 

Brian Vickers and Kasey Kahne, two of the dark horses I mentioned, came through with top 15 finishes. Jamie McMurray, a driver I said to avoid, came through as well, which I guess is not too surprising since he has been running very well this year.

 

Team

Wins

Tracks

Hendrick Motorsports

1

Daytona

Joe Gibbs Racing

1

Fontana

Roush Fenway Racing

1

Bristol

Stewart-Hass Racing

2

Phoenix, Martinsville

Team Penske

3

Las Vegas, Texas, Richmond

 

Manufacturer

Wins

Tracks

Chevrolet

3

Daytona, Phoenix, Martinsville

Ford

4

Las Vegas, Texas , Bristol, Richmond

Toyota

1

Fontana

 

 

 

 

Now, let's analyze the Toyota Owners’ 400 (race) statistics:

 

Race Speed: The average race speed in the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 93.369 mph, which is 3.29% slower than the average of all Richmond Spring races (96.55 mph); the race speed followed the trending (decrease) but was slightly slower than trending shows.

Margin of Victory: The margin of victory in the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 0.946 seconds, which is 18.73% below the average of all Richmond Spring races (1.164 seconds); the race had a close finish which backed-up the trending.

Lead Changes: The number of lead changes in the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 20, which is 32.45% more lead changes that the average of all Richmond Spring races (15.1 lead changes); trending suggested fewer lead changes, but there were more in this race. With drivers trying their hardest to get a win, more passes for the lead are very probable each week.

Number of Cautions: The number of cautions in the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 9, which is 9.09% sooner than the average of all Richmond Spring races (9.9 caution flags); basically, the caution came 1 lap before the average and held true trending.

Caution Laps: The number of caution laps in the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 66, which is 9.27% more than the average of all Richmond Spring races (60.4 laps).

First Caution: The first caution lap in the Toyota Owners’ 400 came out at lap 2, which is 95.01% sooner than the average of all Richmond Spring races (lap 40.1); trending suggested a later first caution but not this time.

Last Caution: The final caution lap in the Toyota Owners’ 400 came out at lap 386, which is 3.43% later than the average of all Richmond Spring races (lap 373.2); this trend has always held true and this race was no exception.

Lead Lap Drivers: The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the Toyota Owners’ 400 was 24, which is 35.59% more than the average of all Richmond Spring races (17.7 drivers on the lead lap).