Race Winner: Kevin Harvick (63.63% of laps lead)

Laps Run: 374

Miles Driven: 510.884

Average Race Speed: 131.211 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.558 seconds

Lead Changes: 22

Number of Cautions: 11

Caution Laps: 50

First Caution: 42

Last Caution: 370

Drivers on the Lead Lap: 22

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 13.369%

 

Predicted

Actual

 

Jeff Gordon

Kevin Harvick

 

Denny Hamlin

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 

Jimmie Johnson

Jimmie Johnson

 

Carl Edwards

Matt Kenseth

 

Matt Kenseth

Greg Biffle

 

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Kyle Busch

 

Brad Keselowski

Jeff Gordon

 

Kyle Busch

Kyle Larson

 

Ryan Newman

Tony Stewart

 

Tony Stewart

Ryan Newman

 

Greg Biffle

Austin Dillon

 

Joey Logano

Clint Bowyer

 

Martin Truex Jr.

Carl Edwards

 

Kyle Larson

Marcos Ambrose

 

Kasey Kahne

A.J. Allmendinger

 

 

Top 5 Precision: 40% correct (2 drivers; Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth)

Top 5 Accuracy: 20% correct (1 driver; Jimmie Johnson)

 

Top 10 Precision: 60% correct (6 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Ryan Newman)

Top 10 Accuracy: 10% correct (1 driver; Jimmie Johnson)

 

Top 15 Precision: 60% correct (9 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Kyle Larson, Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, and Carl Edwards)

Top 15 Accuracy: 13.33% correct (1 driver; Jimmie Johnson)

Dark Horses: Jamie McMurray had a fairly decent day and finished just outside of the top 15 with a 16th place finish. As for the Stewart-Hass drivers who already won a race this year, 1 of them clearly came through again while the other was caught up in a wreck due to no fault of his own; I’d say the win outweighs the failure here. I said to avoid A.J. Allmendinger and clearly he surprised with a 15th place finish! Paul Menard had a pretty bad day which was a good reason to avoid him at Darlington. Clint Bowyer and Brian Vickers basically split Michael Waltrip Racing’s day in terms of one good and one bad finish.

 

Team Wins Tracks
Stewart-Hass Racing 3 Phoenix, Martinsville, Darlington
Team Penske 2 Las Vegas, Darlington
Hendrick Motorsports 1 Daytona
Joe Gibbs Racing 1 Fontana
Roush Fenway Racing 1 Bristol

 

   
     
Manufacturer Wins Tracks
Chevrolet 4 Daytona, Phoenix, Martinsville, Darlington
Ford 3 Las Vegas, Bristol, Texas
Toyota 1 Fontana

 

   


 

Now, let's analyze the Bojangles’ Southern 500 (race) statistics:

 

Race Speed: The average race speed in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 131.211mph, which is 2.1 % faster than the average of all Darlington races (128.462 mph). The trending of the average race speed held true as the race was slightly faster than the average.

Margin of Victory: The margin of victory in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 0.558 seconds, which is 127.42% below the average of all Darlington races (1.269 seconds). Due to that final caution flag setting up a green-white-checkered finish, it would have been highly unlike to see a large gap between first and second; but the margin of victory still fell within the confidence interval.

Lead Changes: The number of lead changes in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 22, which is 6.18% fewer lead changes that the average of all Darlington races (23.36 lead changes). The trending of how many lead changes there were going to be held true with there being slightly less than the average.

Number of Cautions: The number of cautions in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 11, which is 13.18% more than the average of all Darlington races (9.55 caution flags). Trending said the number of cautions would remain around the average, but we saw slightly more than the average, but still fell within the confidence interval.

Caution Laps: The number of caution laps in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 50, which is 10.9% more than the average of all Darlington races (44.55 laps). Trending suggested we would see the number of caution laps be slightly below the average but we see it was slightly above the average yet still within the confidence interval.

First Caution: The first caution lap in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 came out at lap 42, which is 13.43% sooner than the average of all Darlington races (lap 47.64). Trending suggested a late first caution while what was more likely was around lap 50; trending was off and the first caution fell well within the confidence interval.

Last Caution: The final caution lap in the Bojangles’ Southern 500 came out at lap 370, which is 12.92% later than the average of all Darlington races (lap 322.18). The final caution did appear within 25 laps to go and as 2014 has gone, we did in fact see a shootout at the end!

Lead Lap Drivers: The number of drivers on the lead lap at the end of the Bojangles’ Southern 500 was 22, which is 14.55% more than the average of all Darlington races (18.8 drivers on the lead lap). Trending suggested that the number of lead lap driers would be flat, thus around the average, but this race provided more drivers on the lead lap than such, and was barely inside of the confidence interval.